Due to the extensive amount i want to weigh in. I like indexcoop and are just a DYOR guy presenting info.
Wintermute is no doubt a leggit MM that accelerates listing on tier1. More people, more holders, more fees, more buzz, sound good but not too fast and have a look onchain.
wintermute1 wallet: Ethereum Transaction Hash (Txhash) Details | Etherscan
SomniumSpace team transfered 5e6 USD to the MM on the 28.04.2021 and quickly after the price doubled from 2.5 to 5usd. On the 1. may the listing on gemini followed and the token gradually hovered down to 4usd the following month. To “market-make”, wintermute sent only 500k of a total 2e6 CUBE tokens (25%) to gemini (no interaction since), implying that the actual amount of tokens is significantly less. If the remaining 75% tokens are necessary to mm a pair on uniswap is questionable and therefore be considered a compensation for the listing/service amounting to 1.5e6 CUBE worth 3.75Musd at 2.5$ (a full retrace).
Takeaways:
- the amount was overstated for pure MM and the major cut can be considered a “listing fee”
- price spike after listing fully retraced (good, no shady mm pumping)
fig1.: price spike from 2.5 to 5 back to around 2.75$
The project spent 5e6usd for a MM on uniswap + gemini listing/mm which they probably would have gotten via organic growth by users regardless. In contrast the FLI product of indexcoop got market fit already, so i see INDEX in the three digits price range, but lets conservative take current price 43$
If index drops below 7.5e6 /1e5 = 75$ they would return 100k index, bearing 0 risk.
The MM will likely be able to list tier1 putting in a bottom at 50$ and using projected mcap growth to derisk holdings in three digits range, paying back the 5Musd loan. I anticipate a mcap growth of40e3 / 2e3 = 20x, putting index at 20*43 = 860 - unlocks ~ 500$ per coin. The 100k loan would amount to 50e6 of which they pay back 5e6 alias 10% gradually derisking the excess amount (not needed for MM).
Indexcoop should invite Wintermute but revise:
- restrict tier1 definition to binance/coinbase/(ftx)
- consider that primary audience is defi users whose weight is growing with maturing defi infra and thus either reduce the index amount or increase the loan payed by wintermute.